Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle: Where We Are and When the Bottom Comes

📊 A Quick Note on My Forecasts

For long-time subscribers, this won’t be anything new - I’ve shared these thoughts multiple times before.

Bitcoin has historically moved in a roughly 4-year cycle. In other words, about four years pass (with some margin of error) from one market top to the next. The same pattern can be observed with cycle bottoms.

This is easy to verify: just look at the BTC chart and do some basic calculations. There are many theories about why this works, and you can decide for yourself which explanation makes the most sense. The important part is that it has already happened four times, and so far the current cycle is tracking the fifth iteration quite closely.

📉 Another thing worth noting is that the amplitude of these moves has been gradually decreasing:

• Cycle 1: BTC fell ~95% from its peak
• Last completed cycle: BTC fell ~77% from its peak

Based on that trend, it seems reasonable to assume that this cycle’s drawdown could be around 70%.

Our current cycle top is $126k.

$126k - 70% = $37.8k

🎯 That’s where I currently expect the bottom to form.

As for timing, the decline from the top to the bottom in the previous cycle took 373 days. If this cycle follows a similar timeline, the bottom would arrive around October 18.

It’ll be interesting to see how closely reality follows the model. 👀

⚠️ However, the math can be a bit deceptive.

On one hand, BTC is already down about 51%.

Does that mean only 19% remains until the bottom?

No.

At the current price of roughly $62k, Bitcoin would still need to decline another ~40% from current levels to reach $37.8k.

📈 One more simple observation:

Take a look at the previous cycle. After a 51% decline, BTC continued falling further, and it took 532 days before it recovered back to those levels.

If the current cycle follows a similar path, a recovery back to today's prices could happen around November 2027 - roughly 1.5 years from the projected bottom.

Of course, this is only a possible scenario, not a guarantee.

I’ve made my predictions clearly and publicly. This is the base case I use for my own planning, but I’m not going all-in on it. I fully acknowledge that things can unfold very differently, which is why I always keep resources available for flexibility and adaptation.

⏳ We’ll see how it plays out in practice.

DYOR 🚀

Originally posted on Telegram channel.