My Personal Take on Bitcoin: Cycles, ETFs, and Long-Term Strategy

So, I just shared what an AI thinks about Bitcoin, and now here’s my take. You know, it’s funny, we actually agree on a lot!

If you check out those charts, you’ll see Bitcoin has always dropped a lot - like 70-80% from its highest point in past cycles. These days, I hear a lot of people saying that because of new Bitcoin ETFs and big companies buying it up, those huge drops won't happen again. They think the cycles are broken. But I totally disagree. I actually think that when big players get involved, it just makes the price swings even bigger. Right now, that means going up. But if there’s a crisis, Bitcoin is a risky asset, and I believe it’ll be one of the first things big corporations and governments sell off. So, while their buying pushes the price up now, their selling could really crash the price later.

I started buying Bitcoin for my long-term "HOLD" portfolio back in November 2022. My goal was around $110-120k. How did I figure that out? I looked at how much Bitcoin grew from its lowest points in the past. I noticed that each time, the growth was a bit less dramatic, and the "X" factor (how many times it multiplied) was getting smaller. So, based on that, I’m now slowly, once a week, selling off a bit of the Bitcoin I’ve accumulated. That said, I’m not ruling out a quick jump to $140-150k, especially with the ongoing demand from those ETFs and a bit of hype. And no matter what, I’m not planning to sell everything. I want to keep some for the really long haul, maybe even forever.

I plan to buy back if Bitcoin drops 60% or more from its all-time high, which means below $50k. I know that sounds crazy right now, but just think about what prices were like a year ago! Also, I’m totally open to the idea that the next cycle’s peak might actually be lower than the current all-time high. Things change fast. New tech like Kaspa is popping up, and what seemed perfect a decade ago might feel slow and old-fashioned now. I also don’t really buy into the idea that Bitcoin is "digital gold." Sure, it’s great for storing value right now, but how can you compare something that’s been valuable for over 10,000 years to something that’s not even 20 years old? On the flip side, not many people are using crypto yet, so there’s still a massive amount of room for the whole industry to grow.

When it comes to all crypto assets, I still think Bitcoin is the most stable. It makes up about half of my crypto holdings right now, but that share is slowly shrinking. For quick trades and assets that could really explode in value, I’m looking at Kaspa.

Originally posted in Telegram channel.