How Low Can Kaspa Go? A Data-Driven Price Floor Analysis

I decided to look for a relatively scientific answer to the question: "What is the potential floor for Kaspa's price?"

Since late April, I’ve been collecting tick data for Kaspa and Bitcoin trades from the MEXC exchange. I wish I had started earlier to make the dataset even more representative, but the results are already quite telling. I correlated the data to understand how closely KAS follows BTC and to estimate where KAS might land if Bitcoin hits my expected target of $37.8k.

The Breakdown:

BTC at $37.8k (My projected floor): KAS is estimated to hit $0.023.
BTC at $126k: KAS rises to $0.0469. (Interestingly, KAS was at $0.042 when BTC was around $80k just a month ago, but this is what the model shows).
Correlation: 0.75. Kaspa follows Bitcoin’s lead about 75% of the time, while the remaining 25% is driven by its own market dynamics.
The pink band on the chart represents the 95% confidence interval where the actual price is most likely to fluctuate.

Key Assumptions & Limitations:

Linear Model: The calculation assumes a linear relationship. Our current data sits between $0.028-$0.042 for KAS and $59k-$80k for BTC. Anything outside these ranges (like the $37.8k floor or $126k peak) is pure extrapolation - the model is predicting behavior it hasn't "seen" yet.
Short Timeframe: The data covers April-June. Relying on this assumes market behavior remains constant, even though we've recently seen KAS drop even while BTC was climbing.

Conclusion:
This isn't a definitive prophecy - it’s more of an "envelope calculation." However, it’s an honest one backed by hard numbers, error margins, and a clear list of caveats - something I haven't seen elsewhere yet. If Bitcoin actually hits $37.8k, I expect Kaspa to land somewhere between $0.020 and $0.026.

I’m continuing to collect data, so we’ll see how it evolves! I’ve already applied these insights to a demo portfolio in KAS & BTC Scalping bot (@KAS_USDT_BOT), but more on that in the next post. 😉
Stay tuned! 🚀

Originally posted on Telegram channel.