BTC, Kaspa, and Oil: My Full Current Trading Outlook
I’d like to share a brief update on my current outlook regarding the assets I’m trading.
BTC – KASPA – OIL
BTC
Pretty boring. As @KAS_USDT_BOT users have noted, volatility has significantly dropped compared to February–March.I’m keeping an eye on the progress of the Clarity Act, but with yet another delay, the prospects there seem distant. Without this, I don’t see a clear catalyst for a move higher. Network activity remains low.
Key thesis: Sustained high oil prices -> stock market depression, rising inflation, higher interest rates, less "cheap money" -> Bitcoin goes down. Therefore, I find the growth of recent weeks somewhat irrational.
KASPA
The decline has paused for now, but there’s no volume. Anything could happen. We’re waiting for the Toccata hardfork and monitoring developments. The hype has faded, so now it’s a game of observing, accumulating, staying patient, and maintaining strict risk management. There isn't much daily news here, so my focus has temporarily shifted. I’m waiting.
OIL
I’ve been watching oil much more closely lately. I believe oil is the most critical element of the global economy right now, especially given the high debt levels of major economies (which limits their ability to hike rates) and oil’s massive impact on inflation. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price is heavily dependent on it as well.
Several key factors:
- Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in early March, a group of countries decided to release a total of about 400 million barrels from their reserves. Before the Iranian events, about 20 million barrels moved through the strait daily. The Saudis rerouted some of that via pipelines to other ports, and part of the supply was offset by falling consumption. The remaining deficit was supposed to be covered by these reserves. A significant portion of these reserves has already been spent. The bottom line: soon, they will either have to release more (which is getting dangerous) or stop and face a supply deficit and a massive price spike. The longer the blockade lasts, the closer we get to this "breaking point," and the more violent the upward move will be.
- The downside potential is quite limited because depleted reserves will eventually need to be refilled, creating additional demand. Furthermore, oil production isn't just a "faucet" - you can't simply restart a well that’s been shut down for a long time.
- Currently, all parties in the conflict are waiting to see who gets exhausted first. However, as military forces build up in the region, it’s clear that escalation will continue unless demands are softened. In the current configuration, Iran seems able to sustain the blockade for a very long time - certainly longer than Western economies and indices can ignore high oil prices without painful hikes. High inflation leads to higher rates, which drags down indices and crypto (which, by the way, would perfectly fit the 4-year cycle, potentially bringing BTC to $30k–$40k by autumn). Most importantly, high interest rates combined with massive post-COVID sovereign debt is a recipe for pain. We are looking at either hyperinflation or a major (global?) war where these debts are wiped out. Honestly, these scenarios are frightening.
- Trump’s election is drawing closer. Either he has accepted defeat and checked out, or his "timer" is ticking loudly, and the blockade problem needs to be solved as quickly as possible.
Conclusion: I continue to hold my oil positions. I believe the downside is limited for now, while the upside potential is substantial. Staying tuned to the news. DYOR, please!
Originally posted on Telegram channel.
