Fed Rate Cut and Trump–Xi Trade Truce: What It Means for Crypto

Fed:
They cut rates and are slowly dialing back QT, but… a second cut isn’t guaranteed, there’s no talk of QE, the Fed’s balance sheet is near “optimal,” inflation is still elevated, and everything is “data-dependent” (with fewer data points due to the shutdown).
My read: no money printer for now, no clear trend either - expect chop, skewed slightly downward for the moment.

Trump–Xi:
Both sides eased their grip a bit, but it looks more like a one-year pause. The US trimmed some tariffs, but they’re still high; China will share rare earths and buy some agricultural products. The brevity of the meeting and the lack of a joint press conference spooked the sensitive crowd, but IMO it’s not that important here. We’ll see how it’s implemented, but for global trade it’s still underwhelming and unlikely to materially dent inflation. For our crypto trading, monetary policy remains on the tighter side - so more chop ahead.

I don’t see a strong catalyst to send BTC much higher right now. The news is priced in; my personal sentiment has a slight negative tilt.

Originally posted on Telegram channel.