Has the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Ended? My Current Assessment
Bitcoin dipped below the 90k level this week, and many chats are full of panic, apathy, and “when will this finally end, how much more can we take?” Investor memory is really short. Let me remind you that in January we almost reached 110k, which didn’t stop us from later dropping below 75k on April 7 - and then going on to set a new ATH.
On the macro level, my strategy hasn’t changed. I’m sure that sooner or later we’ll drop 70%+ from the ATH, and only then begin a new climb. Personally, I keep selling part of my portfolio every week whenever it’s above 100k. A certain portion I’ll hold until some completely astronomical price. Basically, nothing has changed - you can read more about it here.
Locally though, hopes for a quick return to 100k+ are fading. Not long ago I tried to play this idea speculatively (and ended up losing), but now I believe in that scenario less and less. I’ll stay on the sidelines for now. US stats for October will be released in a shortened format and later, together with November data, so there’s almost no hope for a rate cut decision. At this point I see a possible scenario where we just chop sideways around current or even lower levels, then eventually return above 100k if/when QE starts and rates go down. But that will likely be later, and it’s unclear from which levels we’ll start moving up again.
One more observation: all previous Bitcoin cycle tops ended with elevated volatility and total euphoria - when everyone was picking the color of their future Lamborghini and taxi drivers were handing out tips on which altcoins to buy. This time I somehow missed all of that, and to be honest, I didn’t feel anything like it myself. Because of that, there’s this sense of something unfinished and a slight feeling that we might still see some final, powerful vertical blow‑off top. Oh, and altseason - did anyone actually see it? On which day was it?
Regarding the demo portfolio in @KAS_USDT_BOT: the USDC buffer there can withstand a drop in Bitcoin down to 40k. So, let the bot earn slowly on volatility and add yield through flexible USDC staking on MEXC. If and when we move back above 100k, I’ll sell whatever I didn’t manage to sell this time and top up the bot to increase order size. For now, deposits are on pause according to the demo portfolio strategy. If we’ve truly entered a full-on bear market and don’t return to the highs, I’ll reassess the situation in a month or later. The plan was actually to increase the portfolio more than it is now.
Originally posted on Telegram channel.
