📊 MY MISTAKES WITH THE DEMO PORTFOLIO
I often notice the same mistake among a large portion of bot users - order sizes that are way too large. Everyone chases instant profit, ignoring the fact that higher returns = higher risk. If Kaspa or Bitcoin traded in a relatively tight range over the past month or two and you started to feel like those levels would never change - you're wrong. I've stepped on these same rakes myself, and I have something to say about my own mistakes.
KASPA 🔷
In a recent post about the @KAS_USDT_BOT demo portfolio, I mentioned that I made a mistake right at the very start - I tried to squeeze out maximum returns by placing orders that were too large. As a result, when the price dropped, I was operating with only a small fraction of my deposit for most of the portfolio's lifetime, and returns fell way behind expectations.
How am I fixing it?
1️⃣ I identified the estimated bottom for Kaspa, factoring in its correlation with Bitcoin. Before writing this post, I ran the calculations again with an extra month of data - no major changes, the expected range is roughly the same. Since I was greedy at the start, I'll now be cautious and work from the worst-case scenario: Kaspa drops to $0.02 - about a 35% drop from the current $0.03.
2️⃣ Determine how many orders I need in reserve. I'm going back to the old table. With my 0.9% drop setting, I'm looking at the 1% column (current volatility and spreads are lower, so this is acceptable). The table shows I need a free deposit equivalent to 100–125 orders.
3️⃣ The plan: gradually top up the deposit to cover the estimated bottom, then slowly increase the order size. This doesn't mean all of it will necessarily be used - idle USDT will go into staking at MEXC at 12–15% APY.
4️⃣ As the deposit grows, the order size will grow with it. 📈
BITCOIN 🟠
With Bitcoin, I was actually very cautious from the start - I split the deposit into enough orders to ride out a 70% drop. I didn't make a separate neat table for Bitcoin, but here's the key point: with my 1% drop setting, for the bot to keep running non-stop through a 70% drop (from $126K to $37K), the deposit needs to be split into 215 parts. That's what I did, and the unused USDC went into staking for extra income.
I'm also considering putting the Bitcoin bought at higher prices into staking on MEXC - the percentage is small, but it's better than nothing.
💡 Why is entering @KAS_USDT_BOT now better than 6 months or a year ago?
We're not at the peak. The distance from $64K to the estimated bottom of $37K is much smaller than from $126K. You don't need to split the deposit into 215 parts. From $64K to $37K you need around ~100 orders. So with the same deposit, the order size will be more than 2x larger. Need me to explain how that affects profitability? 😉
It's a bear market right now, and everything suggests it'll stay that way for at least the next year. If you buy Bitcoin today at $64K, there's a real chance it dips to $37K or lower before coming back to $64K. Simple HODLing = stress + $0 profit. The bot strategy = profit. The key is being ready to wait and understanding that the coin will eventually return to its starting value.
Writing this post I assume that nothing here is financial advice. I'm sharing my own thoughts and strategy. Do your own research. Questions? Feel free to ask.
Originally posted on Telegram channel.
