Market Snapshot: Summer Lull
While the market is quiet, I wanted to share a quick snapshot of the current situation as I see it.
Volatility is at its lows - and this isn’t just my observation. Take a look at the chart: Bitcoin volatility is at the lowest level in the entire history of observations. We’ve been moving within a narrow range (57-68k) since the beginning of summer. Sooner or later, this will end.
As for the Clarity Act, despite all the calls and increasingly frequent discussions, it will most likely not be passed before autumn. The key question is whether they’ll manage to get it done before the U.S. midterm elections.
Michael Saylor and Strategy are slowly selling Bitcoin. Great strategy: buy high - sell low.😅
If everything continues according to the scenario I’ve been talking about for over a year - and which we’re still following so far - then there are only about 10–14 weeks left until the bottom, followed by growth.
Another piece of the puzzle supporting this theory: Bitcoin bottoms have usually occurred fairly close to the midterm elections (see graph above). On the other hand, both the Bitcoin cycle and the election cycle are four-year cycles, so this may simply be a coincidence. Still, it’s worth keeping in mind.
For now, the situation remains in a fragile balance, layered on top of the traditional summer slowdown and the crypto winter. We’ll need to be patient. ⏳
Oil
As for oil, I’m waiting for some clarity from the negotiations. It seems the bombings are on pause for now. I’m becoming increasingly convinced that Iran is effectively in a state of dual power: one side wants escalation, while the other wants the opposite. How agreements can be reached and actually upheld - absolutely unclear for me.
If it weren’t for the approaching elections, I’m sure we would have already seen a strong escalation from the U.S. side. For now, there are either negotiations or an imitation of negotiations.
I’m leaning more toward a long position, but I’m not ready to put money on it yet. I need the right news trigger. 🛢
Originally posted on Telegram channel.
