Two Connected Trades: Closing Oil and Opening a BTC Ceasefire Play

Here are two trade screenshots above that are actually connected for me.

I know oil isn’t really relevant to this channel, but some time ago MEXC added futures on oil and a number of popular US stocks, so I decided to test the instrument -especially since the situation seemed pretty straightforward to me. I opened the trade back on March 19, expecting a “to the moon” move in oil due to a potential ground operation and further escalation in Iran. Up until last evening, I was waiting for my modest $115 target to finally be hit. But when news of a possible ceasefire started coming out, I realized the chances were basically gone. I waited a bit, hoping for a better exit, but eventually closed the oil position close to breakeven. In hindsight, I should’ve closed it immediately instead of waiting.

As soon as I decided to close oil, it became clear to me that a risk-on move was very likely, since the de-escalation turned out to be quite unexpected (at least for me). So on the very first reports about a possible ceasefire in Iran last evening, I entered a BTC futures position - more aggressively than usual, and with a relatively large leverage by my own trading rules. Well, it worked - the risk-on thesis played out. I closed the position in the morning. Overall, I’m still bearish.

Honestly, I’m very satisfied with how I handled these trades. With both BTC and closing oil, I did exactly what I’m aiming for: not staying in futures positions all the time, having the patience to stay out, waiting for the right moment with a clear understanding of what’s happening, acting decisively without hesitation, and taking profit. If it’s obvious oil is going down - don’t wait, close it. If it’s obvious there will at least be a short-term move up in BTC - take your profit and don’t get greedy, switch off FOMO, even if BTC keeps going higher afterward.

Have a great day, everyone!

Originally posted on Telegram channel.